baby registry: Potentially fatal cancer cases predicted to double by 2020

07/06/2006 - 18:08:54

The number of people suffering from potentially fatal cancer will double by 2020, a new report revealed today.

The National Cancer Registry issued the warning as a study showed the amount of people with forms of the disease will go up from 22,000 a year at present to 42,000 or 43,000.

The elderly, who are more prone to cancer are most at risk, while an increase in common forms like skin, lung or breast cancer will add to the huge incidence rate.

Dr Harry Comber, director of the Registry, said the baby boom generation, born in the late 1940s, would bear the brunt of it.

“The majority of the increases are really due to factors which are beyond our control which is that our population is ageing and the proportion of the population that is over 65 is going to increase quite significantly over the next 15 to 20 years,” he said.

“This is the part of the population where the vast majority of cancers occur.”

The total number of new cancers is predicted to increase by 90%, from 22,019 to 41,743 between 1998-2002 and 2020, with a larger increase occurring in men 97%, than in women, 83%.

Some of the largest rises are expected in prostate cancer, a 275% increase between 2000 and 2020, kidney, an increase of 160% for women and 200% for men and melanoma, a 130% increase in women and 170% increase in men.

For individual cancers, the largest projected increases for women are in cancers of the liver, kidney, breast, lung, melanoma and gallbladder, and for men in cancers of liver, prostate, kidney, melanoma and testis, the report noted.

Only cancer of the head and neck in men is predicted to fall in numbers.

The Registry warned that the anticipated rise will place a major additional burden on health services which must be considered when planning for staffing and funding.

The body noted improvements in cancer survival rates, along with the increasing number of elderly patients, will create a much greater need for aftercare services and require a more active approach to the management of cancer in older people.

The report added: “If this future cancer burden is to be reduced, action needs to be taken now, both to deal with known risk factors and to identify others, as cancer risk in 2020 will be largely determined by current exposures.

“However, reducing risk will only partly solve the problem, as most of the expected increase in cancer numbers will be caused by the growing number of older people in the population.”

The report said that since the Registry was set up in 1994 there has been a steady increase in the number of cancers diagnosed – almost 3% a year.

It noted that most cancer, 65% in men and 54% in women, occur in the population over 65, so any change in the size of this population gives an indication of the rates of the disease.

The Registry warned however, that the assumption that incidence rates will continue to rise at their current rate may not hold true for all cancers.

It said the recent rapid increase in prostate cancer incidence is likely to be a product of increased PSA blood testing and as in other countries should eventually level off.

New risk factors and unanticipated new trends may also emerge, the report said. For many cancers, however, there seems to be a trend of slowly increasing risk, which is likely to continue.